U.S. President Donald Trump has once again escalated tensions with India, threatening to “substantially” raise tariffs on Indian exports over New Delhi’s continued imports of Russian crude oil. But despite the pressure, India is standing firm — prioritizing energy security and economic rationale over political rhetoric.
Trump’s Warning Shot
In a series of public statements and posts on his Truth Social platform, Trump accused India of buying “massive amounts” of discounted Russian oil and reselling it “for big profits.” He framed India’s actions as financing Russia’s war in Ukraine, stating he would respond by increasing duties on Indian goods, beyond the already announced 25 percent tariff.
Top U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, echoed Trump’s line, labeling India’s Russian oil trade a strategic concern.
India’s Firm Stand
India quickly dismissed the criticism. External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal called the targeting “unjustified and unreasonable,” pointing to the hypocrisy of Western nations that continue trading with Russia while criticizing India for doing the same.
Jaiswal noted that:
- The EU had a bilateral goods trade worth €67.5 billion with Russia in 2024.
- The U.S. continues importing uranium, palladium, fertilizers, and chemicals from Russia.
- European LNG imports from Russia hit record highs in 2024.
He emphasized that India’s imports were driven by national interest — to ensure predictable, affordable energy for its 1.4 billion citizens.
Economic Sense, Not Political Submission
India’s oil purchase strategy is rooted in market logic. After the Ukraine war began in 2022, Russia began offering oil at steep discounts. India, which previously relied heavily on West Asian suppliers, increased its intake sixfold. By 2025, India was importing around 1.7 million barrels of Russian crude per day.
Experts argue that India’s continued imports:
- Adhered to the G7’s $60/barrel price cap.
- Helped contain global oil prices amid OPEC production cuts.
- Prevented inflationary shocks globally.
A source told Mint, “Without India absorbing Russian crude, global oil prices could have breached the $137/barrel mark, intensifying inflation worldwide.”
Even former U.S. Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti previously acknowledged that India’s purchases were part of a U.S.-designed plan to prevent price spikes.
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Strategic Calculations
Indian officials believe bowing to U.S. pressure would set a dangerous precedent. Former Deputy NSA Pankaj Saran noted that even if India stops importing Russian oil, China won’t — giving Beijing an advantage and doing nothing to end the war in Ukraine.
Moreover, India’s contracts with Russian suppliers are long-term. Abruptly canceling them is neither practical nor economically viable.
The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) added that India’s oil trade with Russia has been transparent and aligned with global stability goals. The group criticized Trump’s stance as politically motivated and damaging to the Indo-Pacific strategic partnership.
Looking Ahead
The situation has exposed the fault lines in U.S.-India relations. With Trump cozying up to Pakistan through oil reserve deals and suggesting Islamabad could supply oil to India, the pressure on New Delhi is mounting.
Still, India appears unlikely to cave. Energy security, price stability, and geopolitical balance remain the cornerstones of its strategy.
The world will be watching to see whether Trump intensifies trade measures — or whether economic realism prevails over political optics. For now, India is making one thing clear: it will not let foreign pressure dictate its national priorities.
